Reading time: 8 minutes
Ecrit par : Manoëlle Dousson
Climate change is no longer a distant threat: it is already reshaping our environments, our economies, and our ways of life. Record heat waves, persistent droughts, destructive floods: these are signals that question businesses about their ability to adapt. Good news: while the weather is unpredictable, the climate, on the other hand, can be projected. Thanks to scientific data, it is possible to anticipate risks and integrate these scenarios into strategic decisions.
The question is no longer "if" the climate will change, but "how" to prepare for it starting today.
What will the climate of the world of tomorrow look like?
Being able to predict the climate of the future
Intense heat waves, extreme precipitation, or more frequent wildfires, the climate of the future is already disrupting the benchmarks for businesses. But what will it look like exactly? Can we predict it?
A climate trajectory can be predicted
The short answer to this question is yes. The longer answer states that weather represents short-term events (generally a maximum of three days) while climate represents a trend over at least thirty years. Thus, if we make assumptions about the evolution of economic, demographic, and political data, we can be able to estimate the evolution of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and develop a climate trajectory. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) thus proposes a series of scenarios — called SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways).
What we know... and what we don't know
All these scenarios show with (almost) certainty that extreme events will increase in intensity and frequency, regional disparities will widen (the south of France will become more arid while the north will be wetter), water resources will be under pressure, and the economic cost of climate disruption will rise significantly. In contrast, what remains uncertain is the precise pace of upheavals, the speed of political and social responses, and the resilience of infrastructures and value chains in the face of repeated shocks.
Illustration of the steps involved in generating climate projections (source: article detailing how SSPs work and how they are used, Carbone4)
How scientists can help you
Climate data is a help, not a crystal ball
The SSPs are not crystal balls. However, you can use them for a more precise answer to your questions about the evolution of a weather data that will impact your business.
Understanding the complexity of the subject
The first obstacle you will encounter is the new vocabulary. The literature is constantly updated and new acronyms are created. They often refer to the different scenarios (SSP 1 to 5) or the models used (names of global and regional models). Regardless of the complexity of the subject, it is important to keep in mind that the ideal is to be able to use all the results scenarios to anticipate the consequences of several possible futures. The strength of climate data is overall robust.
Climate timeline: evolution of average temperatures per year since the 19th century
Where to find relevant data
Rendez-vous ensuite sur le site de Drias Climat et Drias Eau pour en apprendre plus sur les données existantes, les télécharger et apprendre à les manipuler.
SMEs – the impact could be significant…
SMEs will be the first affected by climate change
If large companies often have CSR departments or climate monitoring units, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are on the front lines facing the effects of climate change. Their small size and limited margins make them particularly vulnerable..
Example of fish farms
Let's take the case of French fish farms: the increase in water temperature directly affects the growth and survival of fish. A summer marked by a heatwave can lead to high mortality rates, alter water quality, and reduce productivity for several years. The lack of water due to droughts exacerbates this risk. However, these businesses rarely have sophisticated forecasting tools, and their financial adaptation capabilities are limited.
Clés pour anticiper
- Map your vulnerabilities : identify the sites, infrastructures, suppliers, and customers that are most exposed.
- Rely on climate projections : use data from Drias Climat, from GIEC or from specialized actors to accurately anticipate the risks the company will face locally.
- Integrate climate into everyday decisions : adjust investments or operational choices in light of climate scenarios, even on a small scale.
- Mutualize and cooperate : join groups, cooperatives, or professional chambers to increase resilience.
- Train and raise awareness among teams : even in a small structure, employees must know how to recognize and anticipate risks related to their activity.
… and large companies will not be spared
Large groups: if they collapse, they will cause a major impact
Large groups certainly have superior financial and technical resources, but their exposure is systemic: a climate shock can affect their entire value chain, from their suppliers to their customers.
Exemple d’EDF
Nuclear power plants managed by EDF depend on cooling from rivers. However, these will change significantly: reduced or highly variable water flow, higher water temperature. Meanwhile, hydropower dams are already suffering from prolonged droughts, reducing electricity production during peak summer demand. Anticipating these risks requires integrating data from climate projections in order to better calibrate the infrastructures of tomorrow and make those of today more resilient.
Example of insurance
The insurance industry is also on the front lines: the increasing frequency of natural disasters is causing a sharp rise in the cost of claims. In France, the average annual cost of weather-related claims has already risen from 1.5 billion euros in the 1980s to more than 6 billion today, and could increase by 93% between 2020 and 2025 compared to 1989–2019 (source: France Assureurs). This calls into question the sustainability of the insurance system as it currently exists.
Clés pour anticiper
- Leverage large-scale climate projections : systematically integrate scenario data (SSP, regional models) to make strategic decisions that include long-term risks and invest in resilient projects.
- Conduct climate stress tests : simulate the robustness of assets and projects against different possible futures.
- Diversify and flexibilize the value chain : avoid excessive dependence on a territory or supplier exposed to climate risks.
- Train decision-makers and managers : financial, purchasing, logistics, or technical teams must know how to interpret climate data and make operational decisions.
- Développer des partenariats de recherche : travailler avec des instituts scientifiques, collectivités ou startups spécialisées pour affiner les modèles d’impact et co-construire des solutions.
In conclusion
Climate change is not a distant horizon: it is already here, and its effects will intensify in the coming decades. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as well as multinational companies must integrate climate data into their strategy now.
Anticipation is less costly and more effective than managing in an emergency. The tools exist, but they must be mobilized and translated into operational decisions.
Whether it involves small local actions (installing a retention basin, adapting a supply chain) or large transformations (reorienting a business model), every step counts.
Penser climat, c’est sécuriser son avenir.
To go further
- What dataset to use? https://www.carbone4.com/publication-adaptation-donnees-climatiques
- IPCC reports: https://climat.be/changements-climatiques/changements-observes/rapports-du-giec
- Drias Portal : https://www.drias-climat.fr/ and https://www.drias-eau.fr/